Forecast Overview
The Pebble Delta S&P 500 Forecast predicts the future returns and trajectory of the S&P 500 index, which tracks 500 of the largest U.S. companies.
The Forecast provides monthly projections extending two years into the future.
The current, up-to-date Forecast (with daily updates) is a available to paid subscribers.
The free version of our Forecast is updated monthly and published with a 3 month delay.
The Forecast Has Six Main Sections
Simple Forecast Recommendation
A Be IN or Be OUT value recommending whether to invest in the market or not.
This is the simplest Forecast output, it distills the entire forecast into a single binary yes or no value.
All data in the Forecast is as of the Forecast Date, located in the top left corner.
Forecast Basic Details
A simplified summary of the projected returns for the next two years.
Return Rating is a description of high or low the Forecast Return (%) is compared to historical predictions.
Ratings 1-100 are a percentile. A Rating of 50 means the Forecast Return is higher than 50% of all historical predicted returns for that time horizon (since 1964).
Ratings 1-9 are descriptive label for the 1-100 ratings, ranging from low - medium - high across 9 categories.
Forecast Projection
A chart showing the current full forecast projection of the S&P 500 (monthly, two years into the future) vs. the recent actual S&P 500 history.
Forecast charts are interactive. You can select, pan, zoom, and hover over points on any part of the chart to see more detail. The best experience for interacting with a chart is on a desktop screen with a mouse.
Recent Forecasts
A chart comparing the current forecast projection against recent forecasts from 1, 2, and 3 months ago.
Historical Forecasts
A chart showing the current Forecast projection vs. significant past Forecast projections from the last five years.
Forecast Returns
A complete table of all monthly forecast returns for the next two years.
Forecast Example
Below is the Forecast as of June 2, 2025.
Survey code: 932
Pebble Delta provides market forecasts and related content for informational and educational purposes only. Pebble Delta is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide personalized financial advice or investment recommendations.
Past performance does is not indicative of future results. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. You are solely responsible for any financial decisions you make based on information from Pebble Delta.
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