Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly does the Pebble Delta Stock Market Forecast provide?
The Pebble Delta Forecast delivers monthly projections for the next two years for the S&P 500—an index that tracks 500 large U.S. companies. For a complete overview and an example of what the Forecast looks like, click here.
How often is the Forecast updated?
The current, up-to-date Forecast (with daily updates) is a available to paid subscribers.
The free version of our Forecast is updated monthly and published with a 3 month delay.
How do I use the Forecast?
You may use the Forecast however you wish. The information included in the Forecast is designed to be flexible and applies to a variety of use cases.
However, here are a few basic methods of using the Forecast you may want to consider:
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Be In or Be Out - Use the Simple Forecast Recommendation to guide whether to have money invested in the stock market (S&P 500) or not.
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Portfolio Allocation - Use the Forecast Return Ratings to guide how much of your money to invest in the stock market (vs. other options).
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Risk / Return Assessment - Use the Forecast Return Ratings to guide what type of investments you would like to make based on how aggressively you are seeking higher returns and how much investment risk you are willing to take.
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Future Planning - Use the Two Year Forecast Projection to guide your planning on when to make investment decisions in the future (getting in or out of the market, changing your investments, etc.)
How does the Forecast work? What data does it use?
The Forecast uses market signals derived from publicly available data (1964-present) that have historically shown consistent ability to predict future market movements.
The Forecast algorithm uses classical machine learning methods to produce the actual forward looking predictions.
Generally, the Forecast quantifies the accumulation of market risk and instability that builds up over time prior to market downturns as well as recognizing when conditions stabilize and risk declines following market corrections.
The Forecast does not include many commonly discussed economic and market metrics, as most do NOT have a consistent relationship to future market movements.
Additionally, the Forecast does not include data derived from cryptocurrencies, individual stocks, insider trading, online discussion boards, or social media.
The actual data and algorithm specifics used in the Forecast are proprietary.
How accurate is the Forecast?
We have data on the historical accuracy of the Forecast going back to 1964 (through 16 major market downturns). You read about the Forecast's recent and historical accuracy here.
Is Pebble Delta a registered investment adviser?
No, Pebble Delta is not a registered investment advisor. We do not provide personalized financial advice, as we do not know your personal financial situation / goals.
You should read the full terms and conditions here before subscribing to the Pebble Delta Forecast.
How much does a subscription cost and what’s included?
You can view our current subscription pricing here. A paid subscription gets you access to the current, up to date version of the Pebble Delta Forecast (with daily updates).
You can easily cancel or restart your subscription online anytime from your account.
How can I get in touch in case I have other questions?
Feel free to reach out at our contact page here.
